Predict1st: Make Better Predictions, Together

Every important decision we make is, at its core, a prediction. We predict markets will rise or fall. We predict a product will succeed. We predict a relationship, a policy, or an idea will work out.

And yet, most of us never go back to check how good our predictions actually were.

At Predict1st.com, our mission is simple but ambitious: to help people become better predictors by making predictions visible, timestamped, discussable, and accountable.

The Problem: We Remember Our Wins and Forget Our Misses

Humans are natural storytellers—and unreliable historians of their own judgment. We remember the predictions that came true. We rationalize the ones that didn't. We quietly rewrite our internal narrative.

This is how overconfidence, hindsight bias, confirmation bias, and motivated reasoning take hold—without us even noticing.

Most platforms reward confidence and virality. Very few reward calibration, learning, or intellectual honesty. Predict1st exists to change that.

What Predict1st Is

Predict1st is a place where you can:

  • Make predictions and lock them in with a timestamped prediction token
  • Track your own prediction history over time
  • Follow and analyze other people's predictions
  • Discuss outcomes, assumptions, and reasoning
  • Reevaluate past predictions to understand where you were right—and where you weren't
  • Identify your personal cognitive biases through real data, not guesswork

This is not about proving you were right. It's about learning how you think.

Accountability Without Punishment

We believe accountability should be constructive, not performative. On Predict1st, predictions are recorded as they are—before outcomes are known. No editing the past. No post-hoc explanations disguised as foresight.

But this isn't a "gotcha" platform. It's a learning loop:

  1. Predict
  2. Observe
  3. Reflect
  4. Improve

Over time, patterns emerge. You start to see where you're consistently overconfident, where you underestimate uncertainty, and which domains you actually understand.

Learning From Others, Not Just Yourself

Good prediction is a social skill as much as an individual one. Predict1st lets you:

  • Follow people whose reasoning you respect
  • Compare predictions across different perspectives
  • See how consensus forms—and where it breaks down
  • Learn how others update their beliefs when new information arrives

Disagreement is encouraged. Dogma is not. The goal isn't to agree—it's to reason better.

Why This Matters

In a world driven by fast opinions, hot takes, and algorithmic outrage, thinking clearly is a competitive advantage.

Better predictions lead to:

  • Better decisions
  • Better products
  • Better policies
  • Better personal outcomes

We believe prediction literacy should be as fundamental as financial literacy.